Contrary to the view in many quarters,
the 2015 Nigeria Presidential election is not about Fashola or Oshiomole
or Buhari, it is about a lasting structure to build a lasting
democracy, and main opposition APC style as of now, cannot defeat the
ruling PDP unless EPS is adopted.
PDP requires only 25% in most the states under APC and will still keep
the South-East and South-South votes to win the presidency. It is the
bitter truth.
The only life line for the APC is the recommendation of the Oracle on
Expanded Primary System, EPS, which will make APC a grassroots party
and easily it will be able to win the presidency if the party can run
away from godfather mentality of kowtowing to General Buhari and Asiwaju
Tinubu, and give everyone the opportunity to grow; but what they have
now can only fetch them couple of states in 2015.
The first American President George Washington told his country not
to build their democracy around him but build it on institutions because
a government system built around individuals will only give temporary
solution, institution will take a nation up. In July President Obama
delivered a speech in South Africa asking leaders in Africa to focus on
three areas, Opportunities, Democracy and Peace.
EPS will provide opportunities for all politicians to grow, not the
recycled leaders from the military days. With EPS the country can
realize its full potentials from the pool of leaders that will emerge,
and EPS will bring the lasting peace in our body politics in which
tribalism and religion will be forced to play a back role. But the
greatest set back to this may the ambitions of General Buhari and
Asiwaju Tinubu in 2015, which is why the Oracle says, APC is planning to
lose the election if EPS is not taken on the prima facie.
This is the bitter truth; think about it! What will four more years
look like under President Ebele Jonathan? Not because he can do anything
or effect a change, it will be for the failure of the leaders of APC to
adopt a different strategy to bring the party to the grassroots of the
electorates.
The Oracle is pleading with all lovers of change in 2015 to ask
Buhari, Ikimi, and Tinubu to adopt EPS or prepare to watch President
Jonathan’s re-election from the sidelines as he wins four more years.
Those asking Buhari to be the 2015 candidate of Party without EPS must
be ready to accept the verdict of the electorates when President
Jonathan wins again.
If the General can win the nomination of the party through EPS
nothing can stop him from winning the presidency anything beside this is
failure for APC. Williams Shakespeare said in one of his plays Julius
Caesar, “the eyes sees not itself except by other reflections.” APC
right now is a party of the blind in the darkness, they need a generator
or light to see.
Warning from the ORACLE:
The Benefits of Expanded Primary System (EPS) on Nigeria and African politics.
Expanded Primary System, EPS
The purpose of EPS is to expand the opportunity of getting all
interested candidates to have a fair shot at the presidency irrespective
of sex, race or religion as long as he or she can convince the
electorates to vote for him or her. A prospective candidate must meet
the requirement of each of the state’s electoral Board or INEC
requirement in case of non-availability of state requirement like we
have now, each state political party must set up a guideline on how a
candidate can meet the party requirement. The Oracle is suggesting the
format below however, the details and finesse of it can be worked out by
the experts with the support from INEC to conduct the primary election;
it would have been okay if all the parties can do it at the same time,
PDP, APC and others.
To be on the ballot box to run for the office of presidency, a
candidate must qualify to be on the approved register list of each
state. How can a candidate get the approval? He or she must obtain at
least 5000 or designated signatures of party members in the state of
those in good standing with the law and a deposit of any reasonable
amount to be determined by each state, a police clearance, and proof of
tax payment and list of asset declaration that will be published in
state or regional circulated newspapers.
The candidate must disclose all his or her financial contributors in
the zone to the INEC including monthly contribution on state and
national level; this is to prevent the system from being taken over by
money bags. Since Nigeria is tentatively divided into six zones, West,
North West, North East, South South, East and Middle Belt, the primary
election will have to be conducted at the same time in all the states
within each zone, while other zone will have to wait, for example if the
East of Nigeria is alphabetically taken as the first zone all the
states in the region, like Anambra, Imo, Abia and Enugu must conduct the
primary election on the same day, another months will be selected for
the primaries in the West, North West, North East, South South, and
Middle Belt, meaning we can rotate between North and South until we have
been able to conclude the EPS.
Each of the candidates would have campaigned in all the states in the
region including holding town hall meetings, at least two debates that
will involve all the candidates to sell their dreams and plans for
Nigerians, for example if General Buhari, Tinubu or Okorocha want to run
for presidency, all of them must register their interest with all the
party offices in all the states in the East of Nigeria, they must obtain
at least 5000 or designated figures from registered voters in the each
state of the region to be on the ballot box.
What happen if any of them can’t get the 5000 or designated number of
signatures of voters in such a state? It is simple. The affected person
will not be on the approved list of those to contest in such a state in
the primaries, and miss the delegates from such state, but it will not
stop him for being on the national list if he wins the party ticket on
the long run. Winning must be based on the approved delegates; the more
state you win the more the delegates you get enables ytou to get the
final nomination of the Party to be ratified at the National Convention.
The above will help to reduce proliferation of political parties in
Nigeria and very soon two party systems will become an established
institution, not a party structure based on individuals or godfather
mentality but a lasting legacy, the same procedure will be followed by
the next zone, since East had been taken as the first division for the
extended primary EPS, another region presumably in the North will be
taken as the next, meaning Buhari, Tinubu or Okorocha would have the
same method used in the East to win delegates in the North East, and so
on, until all the six zones must have participated in the choosing the
candidate that will represent the party at the national presidential
election.
In all, we are looking at minimum 12 debates involving all the
candidates and all the citizens would have had the opportunities of
asking and knowing the quality of candidates that will be running for
the office of presidency. Some candidates would have dropped along the
way if they are unable to gather enough delegates from one or two zones
or after their lack of preparedness must have been detected by the press
and the electorates in the way they answer questions or if their past
revealed negative or unpatriotic attitude, this is the beauty of
expanded primary system, and the electorates get to know or understand
their candidates as the primary goes on.
The National Convention of the party is just a formality that will
just be to ratify the results of all the zones of the federation. Can
this system work in Nigeria if PDP decides not to go through the same
route? This is the questions in the minds of the readers, yes. The
Oracle says if APC can do this, it will give it a legitimate ground to
lay a solid foundation for winning, when the party must have gone
through a process of getting a sharper and better candidate, he or she
will emerge and Nigerians will be properly educated on what it takes to
be a leader of 160 million people and PDP will have no choice, than to
follow suit. If the PDP fails to adopt similar method it will provide a
better opportunity for the electorates to leave the party like bad habit
and vote for APC since they plan to be relevant, the party will have to
adopt EPS.
Again, the Oracle says the details of EPS is within the political
parties and INEC to add flesh to this proposal and if the INEC decides
to adopt this expanded primary system EPS, it will help our Democracy a
lot. However it will be just okay to give a brief on the benefits to
expect from this silent political revolution called EPS. With EPS we can
solve Nigeria’s political problems by more than 55 percent. We will be
able to eliminate aimless candidates from running for office in Nigeria
again. We will be able to re-elect politicians based on performance, and
religion will take the back seat, so it is with tribalism. Result will
be the yardstick for winning, and godfathers may have to find another
job. Our press will become the voice and opinions of the people and
those with skeletons in the closets will run away from politics.
The positive effect of the process will rub off more on our
judiciary, they will be too afraid to pervert justice; all our
institutions will witness positive change. EPS is the silent revolution
of the masses for a better society, based on accountability and result.
In future when we want state and city police for security of our society
it will not be stopped, when we ask for mayoral system to develop our
towns and cities it will not be challenged by those who don’t have
anything to offer. Nigeria’s train of progress will never be stopped
again as all enemies of development will run away and our children and
coming generations will be happy to call themselves Nigerians again in
any part of the world as a pride to the black race. It will be a
revolution that will spread to all the 55 countries in Africa.
Zents Sowunmi aka ‘The Oracle’ is a New York based writer. Author of
“President Obama: Hero or Villain of Capitalism” and “Before the Journey
became Home” In December 2013 a new book by the Oracle will be in the
market: “The Vultures and Vulnerable.”
Written By Thompson Orio