PDP requires only 25% in most the states under APC and will still keep
the South-East and South-South votes to win the presidency. It is the
bitter truth.
The only life line for the APC is the recommendation of the Oracle on
Expanded Primary System, EPS, which will make APC a grassroots party
and easily it will be able to win the presidency if the party can run
away from godfather mentality of kowtowing to General Buhari and Asiwaju
Tinubu, and give everyone the opportunity to grow; but what they have
now can only fetch them couple of states in 2015.The first American President George Washington told his country not to build their democracy around him but build it on institutions because a government system built around individuals will only give temporary solution, institution will take a nation up. In July President Obama delivered a speech in South Africa asking leaders in Africa to focus on three areas, Opportunities, Democracy and Peace.
EPS will provide opportunities for all politicians to grow, not the recycled leaders from the military days. With EPS the country can realize its full potentials from the pool of leaders that will emerge, and EPS will bring the lasting peace in our body politics in which tribalism and religion will be forced to play a back role. But the greatest set back to this may the ambitions of General Buhari and Asiwaju Tinubu in 2015, which is why the Oracle says, APC is planning to lose the election if EPS is not taken on the prima facie.
This is the bitter truth; think about it! What will four more years look like under President Ebele Jonathan? Not because he can do anything or effect a change, it will be for the failure of the leaders of APC to adopt a different strategy to bring the party to the grassroots of the electorates.
The Oracle is pleading with all lovers of change in 2015 to ask Buhari, Ikimi, and Tinubu to adopt EPS or prepare to watch President Jonathan’s re-election from the sidelines as he wins four more years. Those asking Buhari to be the 2015 candidate of Party without EPS must be ready to accept the verdict of the electorates when President Jonathan wins again.
If the General can win the nomination of the party through EPS nothing can stop him from winning the presidency anything beside this is failure for APC. Williams Shakespeare said in one of his plays Julius Caesar, “the eyes sees not itself except by other reflections.” APC right now is a party of the blind in the darkness, they need a generator or light to see.
Warning from the ORACLE:
The Benefits of Expanded Primary System (EPS) on Nigeria and African politics.
Expanded Primary System, EPS
The purpose of EPS is to expand the opportunity of getting all interested candidates to have a fair shot at the presidency irrespective of sex, race or religion as long as he or she can convince the electorates to vote for him or her. A prospective candidate must meet the requirement of each of the state’s electoral Board or INEC requirement in case of non-availability of state requirement like we have now, each state political party must set up a guideline on how a candidate can meet the party requirement. The Oracle is suggesting the format below however, the details and finesse of it can be worked out by the experts with the support from INEC to conduct the primary election; it would have been okay if all the parties can do it at the same time, PDP, APC and others.
To be on the ballot box to run for the office of presidency, a candidate must qualify to be on the approved register list of each state. How can a candidate get the approval? He or she must obtain at least 5000 or designated signatures of party members in the state of those in good standing with the law and a deposit of any reasonable amount to be determined by each state, a police clearance, and proof of tax payment and list of asset declaration that will be published in state or regional circulated newspapers.
The candidate must disclose all his or her financial contributors in the zone to the INEC including monthly contribution on state and national level; this is to prevent the system from being taken over by money bags. Since Nigeria is tentatively divided into six zones, West, North West, North East, South South, East and Middle Belt, the primary election will have to be conducted at the same time in all the states within each zone, while other zone will have to wait, for example if the East of Nigeria is alphabetically taken as the first zone all the states in the region, like Anambra, Imo, Abia and Enugu must conduct the primary election on the same day, another months will be selected for the primaries in the West, North West, North East, South South, and Middle Belt, meaning we can rotate between North and South until we have been able to conclude the EPS.
Each of the candidates would have campaigned in all the states in the region including holding town hall meetings, at least two debates that will involve all the candidates to sell their dreams and plans for Nigerians, for example if General Buhari, Tinubu or Okorocha want to run for presidency, all of them must register their interest with all the party offices in all the states in the East of Nigeria, they must obtain at least 5000 or designated figures from registered voters in the each state of the region to be on the ballot box.
What happen if any of them can’t get the 5000 or designated number of signatures of voters in such a state? It is simple. The affected person will not be on the approved list of those to contest in such a state in the primaries, and miss the delegates from such state, but it will not stop him for being on the national list if he wins the party ticket on the long run. Winning must be based on the approved delegates; the more state you win the more the delegates you get enables ytou to get the final nomination of the Party to be ratified at the National Convention.
The above will help to reduce proliferation of political parties in Nigeria and very soon two party systems will become an established institution, not a party structure based on individuals or godfather mentality but a lasting legacy, the same procedure will be followed by the next zone, since East had been taken as the first division for the extended primary EPS, another region presumably in the North will be taken as the next, meaning Buhari, Tinubu or Okorocha would have the same method used in the East to win delegates in the North East, and so on, until all the six zones must have participated in the choosing the candidate that will represent the party at the national presidential election.
In all, we are looking at minimum 12 debates involving all the candidates and all the citizens would have had the opportunities of asking and knowing the quality of candidates that will be running for the office of presidency. Some candidates would have dropped along the way if they are unable to gather enough delegates from one or two zones or after their lack of preparedness must have been detected by the press and the electorates in the way they answer questions or if their past revealed negative or unpatriotic attitude, this is the beauty of expanded primary system, and the electorates get to know or understand their candidates as the primary goes on.
The National Convention of the party is just a formality that will just be to ratify the results of all the zones of the federation. Can this system work in Nigeria if PDP decides not to go through the same route? This is the questions in the minds of the readers, yes. The Oracle says if APC can do this, it will give it a legitimate ground to lay a solid foundation for winning, when the party must have gone through a process of getting a sharper and better candidate, he or she will emerge and Nigerians will be properly educated on what it takes to be a leader of 160 million people and PDP will have no choice, than to follow suit. If the PDP fails to adopt similar method it will provide a better opportunity for the electorates to leave the party like bad habit and vote for APC since they plan to be relevant, the party will have to adopt EPS.
Again, the Oracle says the details of EPS is within the political parties and INEC to add flesh to this proposal and if the INEC decides to adopt this expanded primary system EPS, it will help our Democracy a lot. However it will be just okay to give a brief on the benefits to expect from this silent political revolution called EPS. With EPS we can solve Nigeria’s political problems by more than 55 percent. We will be able to eliminate aimless candidates from running for office in Nigeria again. We will be able to re-elect politicians based on performance, and religion will take the back seat, so it is with tribalism. Result will be the yardstick for winning, and godfathers may have to find another job. Our press will become the voice and opinions of the people and those with skeletons in the closets will run away from politics.
The positive effect of the process will rub off more on our judiciary, they will be too afraid to pervert justice; all our institutions will witness positive change. EPS is the silent revolution of the masses for a better society, based on accountability and result. In future when we want state and city police for security of our society it will not be stopped, when we ask for mayoral system to develop our towns and cities it will not be challenged by those who don’t have anything to offer. Nigeria’s train of progress will never be stopped again as all enemies of development will run away and our children and coming generations will be happy to call themselves Nigerians again in any part of the world as a pride to the black race. It will be a revolution that will spread to all the 55 countries in Africa.
Zents Sowunmi aka ‘The Oracle’ is a New York based writer. Author of “President Obama: Hero or Villain of Capitalism” and “Before the Journey became Home” In December 2013 a new book by the Oracle will be in the market: “The Vultures and Vulnerable.”
Written By Thompson Orio